T.O.P Leader Geoff Simmons wants to work with the Maori
Party according to this story;
Data below gives us a view on
whether or not that is viable.
The data is the latest Electoral
data, the 2017 Election.
2017
Maori Seat Party Votes for Labour VS. Maori Party/T.O.P
Seats
|
Labour
|
Maori Party
|
T.O.P
|
Tai Tokerau
|
14446
|
1615
|
577
|
Tamaki Makaurau
|
12220
|
2258
|
477
|
Hauraki Waikato
|
14279
|
2635
|
582
|
Waiariki
|
14144
|
4730
|
690
|
Ikaroa-Rawhiti
|
15233
|
3058
|
468
|
Tai Hauauru
|
13475
|
3448
|
658
|
Tai Tonga
|
13484
|
2030
|
944
|
Total: 97281
|
Total: 19774
|
Total: 4396
|
Overall Party Vote of Maori Party and T.O.P:
30580 (Maori Party) + 63261 (T.O.P) = 93841
-
It is clear that just
in their Maori Seat Vote, Labour still supersedes that combined overall result
of Maori Party and T.O.P by 3440
-
The current (5%) threshold is 129594.8
-
A 4% threshold is 100795.84
-
A 3% threshold is 77756.88
-
At that 3% threshold, a combined
Maori Party T.O.P Candidate could get in, but we can see that this outcome is
highly unlikely.
Based on the 2017 results, a Maori Party/T.O.P Candidate
getting in on the Party vote is not likely to be successful.
_________________________________________________________________________________
2017
Maori Seat
Candidate Votes for Labour VS. Maori Party/T.O.P
Seats
|
Labour
|
Maori Party
|
T.O.P
|
Tai Tokerau
|
12,673
|
0
|
0
|
Tamaki Makaurau
|
9396
|
5587
|
0
|
Hauraki Waikato
|
15306
|
6083
|
0
|
Waiariki
|
12362
|
10643
|
0
|
Ikaroa-Rawhiti
|
12274
|
8064
|
0
|
Tai Hauauru
|
9791
|
8752
|
0
|
Tai Tonga
|
10416
|
4915
|
0
|
Total: 82218
|
Total:44044
|
Total: 0
|
It is here that we see that the Maori Party was not successful
in the Candidate vote in the Maori seats and T.O.P had no results in the Maori
seats because they did not stand in the Maori seats.
But if we used the T.O.P Party
vote of 4396 as a gauge, this does not give confidence in the T.O.P Party’s
Maori seat prospects.
THE HARD FACTS:
These are the hard electoral facts, the odds and results are
not in T.O.P’s or the Maori Party’s favour when it comes to Maori seats.
Even looking at their combined overall party votes, on
current thresholds, they cant even get a
List Seat.
