Saturday, 4 November 2017

Advice for my former Party - the Maori Party




There are some who'd advise against me sharing these thoughts and ideas, saying that 'I should not look to my past'. Others who may say 'Is there a point to you saying this?'. Others still may contend that 'It does nothing'... or even worse.. I may be called something of a traitor.

I do NOT write this for any of those people particularly.

I write for those genuine friends, family and associates of mine who remain in, who support, who vote for the Maori Party... but who are OPEN to a different view.

Whanau...

I can not categorically say that the Maori Party in 2017 had a highly successful campaign. In hindsight, I think they should reflect on the 2 kawenata they signed for 2016 and 2017 with MANA and One Pacific. I don't think that any of those Kawenata served the Maori Party, MANA Movement or One Pacific. I don't know that having Non-Maori candidates in the Maori Party, truly served their purposes or kaupapa.

I can NOT contend that it was in the best interests of Rahui Papa and Tukuroirangi Morgan to have the Maori King's support for the Maori Party. In fact in the Maori Party's history, it is not a strong result compared to previous years (2008 and 2005).

I (like the rest of the country) was shocked when I heard that Te Ururoa Flavell lost the Waiariki seat, I had predicted that he would win. He did not.

I think even with standing in many General Seats, this did not help the overall Party vote. We see that they had THE WORST Party vote result, in the Party's history.
I HAVE to say, some of their General seat candidates were naive. Others could never get away from news stories of corruption. Some still, were said to have expressed homophobic views. None of this served the purposes of the Maori Party.

Now all of this... on top of some of the obvious... like maori voters (rightly or wrongly) continually associating the Maori Party with the National Party, or controversial legislation like Ture Whenua reforms, the lack of focus on the issues that affected the average Maori....

ALL of this contributed to the Maori Party's poorest showing EVER!!!

And so whanau, there is no way, that anyone can say with certainty that the Maori Party can have a great future.

I do not suggest that in it's current form, with the current candidates, current executive, current leadership, current policies and current marketing..... that the Maori Party can survive.

In fact, I also do not encourage the Maori Party to continue to do what it has done this year. It would be silly to do so.

This was the worst result for the Maori Party... and may I say... doing in 2017 what was called for by members in previous Elections is NOT how to win!!!!!!! Those calls were specific to those previous years. Conditions have proven different in 2017... and the Maori Party did not see this or read this properly.
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My advice to my former Party, is that the great gains of previous terms like Whanau Ora, U.N.D.R.I.P and others are won and continued. The Maori seats are also secured for survival.
The Maori Party in it's current form has served a purpose and a time passed.

It it's current form it serves NO Purpose. I don't think it should continue in it's current form.
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It is not about a 'Rejig, Reimagine, Rethink'. NO!!!! It is time to set this kaupapa of the Maori Party (2004 - 2017) to rest, to END!!!

There is no recovery from the electoral difficulties of this year. The people and members need to move on.... and rethink individually what they should do.
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To be fair, or try to seem so... all hope may no be lost... but something more than radical needs to happen.... and there is no way of knowing what that is at this point.


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Note that I caveat everything I say; I am a former member and former voter of and for the Maori Party. It may be obvious to some that I am no longer a member and am in fact a member of another Party.

Sunday, 17 September 2017

Predicting Maori Seats in 2017

Predicting Maori Seats in 2017

My personal, informed opinion on how the Maori seats might go in 2017.
In some cases, there is a clear idea whereas with others it is anyone's guess.

Te Tai Tokerau
In my view, Kelvin voters will vote for Kelvin because they are pleased with his work and don't want Hone. Hone voters will vote for Hone because they are pleased with his previous record of service and believe he may be that 'effective independent voice'.
I have no clear prediction for Te Tai Tokerau and it could honestly go either way.



















Tamaki Makaurau
Again, I honestly feel it may go either way, Peeni has a great record of service over the last 3 years and is respected throughout the rohe. But The Maori Party also have a great history in this seat and their candidate has a  high profile. The Maori Party's Shane Taurima has as good a chance as incumbent Peeni Henare to win.

























Hauraki-Waikato
It's a no brainer, in all the history of the seat, Labour's Nanaia Mahuta has always won. I predict she will win again.
















Waiariki
A consistent and strong showing for Incumbent Te Ururoa Flavell for over 10 years. I predict him winning again.
















Te Tai Hauauru
Like 2 other seats, it is anyone's guess. Incumbent Adrian Rurawhe had a good majority last Election. Maori Party candidate is popular in parts of the Electorate. Not sure if it is a level playing field. Polls show support for the Maori Party's Howie Tamati, but Adrian's connection to key parts of the Electorate make him have a strong chance. I won't call this one here. Both Howie and Adrian have a good chance.






















Ikaroa-Rawhiti
Labour's Meka Whaitiri won the by-election that got her in to Parliament and the General Election Result last time. I predict her winning comfortably again.














Te Tai Tonga
 Labour's Rino Tirikatene has held the seat since 2011 and has not been unseated. He does have a  challenge in Green's Metiria Turei. But I do not think that Rino will lose.
















Important Note:
* I obviously believe in the Maori seats but don't talk about that here. See my thoughts on this youtube video
* I have blogged on Political Issues for 4 years
* I have campaigned for several parties, including Maori Party, Greens and Labour
* I have already voted and so hope things go a particular way, but try not to bias my writing here.
* I believe it is clear that Labour will win Party vote, so won't comment on that here, that's not bias, that's going on previous results.
* I won't comment on the Greens, alot insomusch, they have consistent voters in the Maori seats, but have not yet won candidacy which is the focus of this blog.
* The 2 biggest upsets which affected the seats from then onwards, will be mentioned here rather than throughout the blog.
 1. was the 2004 Seabed and Foreshore debacle 
2.  2010 split of the MANA Movement from the Maori Party.


Tuesday, 12 September 2017

Core Numbers for National and Labour

Core Numbers for National and Labour going back to 1996 (MMP Elections, the last 7 Elections)

Data from www.electionresults.govt.nz 

You decide what it means:

Labour:

2014 Result: 604,535
2014 Percentage: 25.13%

2011 Result: 614,937
2011 Percentage: 27.48%

2008 Result: 796,880
2008 Percentage: 33.99%

2005 Result: 935,319
2005 Percentage: 41.10%

2002 Result: 838,219
2002 Percentage: 41.26%

1999 Result: 800,199
1999 Percentage: 38.74%

1996 Result: 584,159
1996 Percentage: 28.19%

National:

2014 Result 1,131,501
2014 Percentage 47.04%

2011 Result 1,058,636
2011 Percentage 47.31%

2008 Result 1,053,398
2008 Percentage 44.93%

2005 Result 889,813
2005 Percentage 39.10%

2002 Result 425.310
2002 Percentage 20.93%

1999 Result 629,932
1999 Percentage 30.50%

1996 Result 701,315
1996 Percentage 33.84%

All this tells us that there are about 2 - 4 hundred thousand swing voters.
Or in other words, we can see from the Change Elections (1999 and 2008), the difference is about 8 - 10%

I mean these results tell us that it is really up to the swing voters. I've only looked at numbers here and only for the 2 major Partys. Also it is clear that every single one of these Elections had their own unique circumstances and situations that influenced the results.
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One thing is clear.... that the only truly trustworthy poll is on Election Night AND

That it is important to vote.
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For the 2017, I do not doubt that it may well be quite close... National voters will turn out and so will Labour.

We just want to see who gets more???


Tuesday, 7 February 2017

Oranga Tamariki

My Submission to the Social Services Committee on the
Children, Young Persons, and Their Families (Oranga Tamariki) Legislation Bill



E nga mana, kouotu o te Komiti Tena Koutou.

You gather, not just to discuss a bill and hear views on a bill.

NO, You, each and every committee member gathered, holds the future of children in our nation in your hands, in a very literal way.
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I was a child in care when I was 11. I am now a grown man and throughout my life, have know many of my whanau in a similar situation.

The time when we are away from our Mums and Dads is undoubtedly the MOST traumatising time of our lives. We are apart from those who gave us life.
Now, we are away from them to be safe, and it is only that safety, that gets us through the weeks and months (or for some YEARS) that we are away from our very own Parents.

Safety AND WHANAU. Safety IN WHANAU.

In our case, for the majority of our time in state-care under CYFS way back in 1999-2000 we lived with Mum's Brother. We were with WHANAU.

Let me tell you, we are so so grateful for that, because it showed us all those years ago that we do indeed have a wider loving whanau and our whanau really actually, care in a tangible and real way.
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I urge the committee to ENSURE that our children in state-care are at the very first oppurtunity, placed with their whanau. This needs to be mandated and explicitly stated in law.

It is NOT Optional. It is NOT a Maybe.

Children NEED TO be placed in their safety of their whanau.
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Tamariki Maori in particular, SHOULD be placed with their whanau or even their hapu.

This is the right thing to do. This is the RIGHT THING to write in to this law.
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You are all connected to tamariki, whether you are Parents yourselves, or Grandparents or Aunties or Uncles. What wou;d you want for your own tamariki.

As for me, I want tamariki in Aotearoa to be loved in and by the safety of their own whanau.

Thursday, 5 January 2017

SAVE PT. ENGLAND RESERVE




We only have until the 31st of January to SAVE POINT ENGLAND RESERVE

Below is a Press Statement I just sent out and an email to the community.
_______________________________________________________________

PRESS STATEMENT

SAVE POINT ENGLAND RESERVE IN GLEN INNES

Community Advocates are calling for support to oppose a Housing Development at a Local Reserve in East Auckland.
petition has been created to SAVE POINT ENGLAND RESERVE

The petition was created by Tsz Ho a local pharmacist affected by the potential development.

Ho and other Advocates worry that the development could lead to 

* POLLUTION of the Local Beach, Bush and Omaru River
* Loss of a Community and Event's space
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The reserve is home to local bush, wildlife and sea life.
The reserve also hosts important community events like Concerts, Runs and sporting Events like the Weet Bix Tryathlon.

Advocates worry that all of this will be negatively affected and that current residents may also be negatively affected

Advocates are calling on the media to alert the community and also want people to make submissions to Parliament so as to STOP THE DEVELOPMENTS AND POLLUTION.

Advocate TeRata Hikairo says 'We must have this place available for future generations and we must preserve our environment. If you want to help stop this, email me terata@hotmail.com" 

ENDS
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EMAIL:

Tena Koutou Katoa
Nga Mana Whenua Ngati Whatua ki Orakei, Local Teachers, Ruapotaka Marae, Community Advocates and Local Board Members

Please read this email and then forward this email to your networks in Glen Innes.

I am calling for community support to 
OPPOSE "REZONING AND REVELOPMENT OF THE POINT ENGLAND RESERVE".

Before Parliament RIGHT NOW, There is a Bill that would see land being rezoned for Housing Developments on the Point England Reserve.

SUBMISSIONS CLOSE 31st January 2017
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I am calling for this OPPOSITION BECAUSE

1. Point England is a Reserve, with local bush, the Omaru River and Sea life close by. It is a reserve and should be treated as such. There is no actual reassurances that a housing development would NOT negatively affect, even pollute the local environment and affect local bush life and sea life. We FACE LOSING AND POLUTTING OUR OMARU RIVER AND WAITEMATA HARBOUR, IF THIS DEVELOPMENT WENT AHEAD.

2. Point England Reserve is a critically important Event's space where we gather, we celebrate and we hold events. This Reserve is important to our community as are the walk ways and access ways to the reserve. These Events build a stronger sense of community. The whole space as it is currently is important to our community.

3. Our tamariki love the playground, love to run around, love this place. We must preserve the whole space for them. A Housing development may not be good for the tamariki who use this reserve. Our tamariki can learn more about their environment. A housing development would negatively affect these learning oppurtunities.
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I myself have already made a submission to Parliament 

I urge you to do the same WE ONLY HAVE UNTIL THE 31ST OF JANUARY, DO THIS QUICKLY!!!!!


Regards,
--
TeRata Rangi Hikairo


Sunday, 1 January 2017

Did Scientology just dissuade against Trump

I'm genuinely interested in the words of the leader of the Church of Scientology.

Now, before I go on, yes Churches are not political, and Scientology is NO exception.
Churches generally don't make public statements endorsing any particular political party or political candidate. And of course, what I read, if taken for it's face value, reflects that. Scientology would be speaking ambiguously to it's international membership, urging them to push forward in the aims of that religion. That's what their particular statement looks like.


“Thus, we of the Church believe in human rights. We believe in racial equality. We believe in liberty, eternity and the dignity of Man.

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But.... anyone who knows anything about recent American politics and the election of President-elect Donald Trump, would see these words as somewhat of a loaded statement.

It might me considered a warning against Trump.

Now I may be drawing a pretty long bow, BUT, Do you remember what Donald Trump said about Mexicans?


Or what Trump said about Muslims (Muslims are a religion, not a race, but you can see the bigotry in Trump's statement)


So with this in mind, am I really drawing a long bow???

Or did the leader of the Church of Scientology, in his own Scientology-Language (although also clearly in ENGLISH) just warn against Donald Trump.
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I am generally interested in this, given that many of my Facebook friends are Scientologists who have supported Trump or even voted for him.
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Just a note to them, this is all publically available on the internet. The quote that I screenshotted is on front page of the Church's website right now, and everything else was found with a quick Google search. This is not attacking per se, this is me asking questions only and in my human-right to freedom of expression and freedom of speech which the Church supports.


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All interesting don't you think???

I personally am happy if what I think is true, because I too of course stand for Human Rights and Racial Equality, Liberty and Dignity.

The statements above from the Church oughta be congratulated because whatever one thinks about Donald Trump, what he has said as evidenced above is CLEAR Bigotry and what he has said, oughta be condemned. Congratulations David Miscavige and HAPPY NEW YEAR