Saturday, 5 November 2016

Mt. Roskill By Election 2016

Mt. Roskill has existed since MMP.

And has always been held by the same Electorate MP.

(Former) Labour MP Phil Goff has always held the seat.
Labour has also usually done well in the Party vote in Mt Roskill, but this has not always been so.

We know that in the 2014 Election, National won the Party vote in Mt. Roskill and their candidate coming nowhere near the Incumbent, still got over 10,000 votes.

Another thing that is interesting about this Electorate is the party vote in the 2008 Election where BOTH Labour and National equally got 42%.
This tells us that there definitely is reasonable support for National, even if Mt. Roskill always faithfully backed their Labour MP, Phil Goff.

But with Goff stepping down to become Auckland Mayor, it may NOT be a Labour win in the Seat.
Nationals Parmjeet Parmar is the Mt. Roskill By Election and was National's candidate in the 2014 General Election.

Remember she got over 10,000 votes and her Party in 2014 won the Party vote.
National's Party vote victory may've been thin, but the previous 2008 Election tells us that there is still SOLID support for National in Mt Roskill.

NOW, I'm not saying it is impossible for Labour's new candidate Micheal Wood, but if the 2014 Election result in Epsom where he stood is anything to go by,  then Wood is not even much liked even by Labour voters. (He got 3000 votes and Labour got 5000 votes).

So from all this we see, it is NOT a plain sailing easy victory for Wood and he has a VERY Strong challenge in Parmar.

I have not always been accurate in By-Election predictions, but I will say this one can quite possibly go either way.

We shall wait and see.