Saturday, 5 November 2016

Mt. Roskill By Election 2016

Mt. Roskill has existed since MMP.

And has always been held by the same Electorate MP.

(Former) Labour MP Phil Goff has always held the seat.
Labour has also usually done well in the Party vote in Mt Roskill, but this has not always been so.

We know that in the 2014 Election, National won the Party vote in Mt. Roskill and their candidate coming nowhere near the Incumbent, still got over 10,000 votes.

Another thing that is interesting about this Electorate is the party vote in the 2008 Election where BOTH Labour and National equally got 42%.
This tells us that there definitely is reasonable support for National, even if Mt. Roskill always faithfully backed their Labour MP, Phil Goff.

But with Goff stepping down to become Auckland Mayor, it may NOT be a Labour win in the Seat.
Nationals Parmjeet Parmar is the Mt. Roskill By Election and was National's candidate in the 2014 General Election.

Remember she got over 10,000 votes and her Party in 2014 won the Party vote.
National's Party vote victory may've been thin, but the previous 2008 Election tells us that there is still SOLID support for National in Mt Roskill.

NOW, I'm not saying it is impossible for Labour's new candidate Micheal Wood, but if the 2014 Election result in Epsom where he stood is anything to go by,  then Wood is not even much liked even by Labour voters. (He got 3000 votes and Labour got 5000 votes).

So from all this we see, it is NOT a plain sailing easy victory for Wood and he has a VERY Strong challenge in Parmar.

I have not always been accurate in By-Election predictions, but I will say this one can quite possibly go either way.

We shall wait and see.


  1. Just saw this which said when Micheal Wood stood for Local Board in 2013 and was successful, he'd still lost 2000 votes compared to his 2010 result, which in 2013 showed waning support for him possibly

    1. Comparing the Mt. Roskill Electorate Map with the Puketapapa Local Board map, gives us a view of where and which areas, particular voters (National and Labour) probably are.

  2. 3.12.2016
    By-Election result goes convincingly to Micheal Wood with a 6518 majority.

    In my thoughts, there were several factors at play here which gave him this victory.

    1. By Election voter counts are always lower than General Election voter counts.

    2. He was endorsed and supported by the former MP, Phil Goff.

    3. He lives in the Electorate.

    4. He had a proven record already on the Puketapapa Local Board.

    5. Prime Minister John Key's (perceived) lack of confidence in his National candidate Parmjeet Parmar.... seems to have boded well for Micheal Wood today.

    I have some points for thought.

    1. Will Micheal Wood stand for Mt. Roskill in the 2017 by-election?

    2. If so, will he win again?

    3. If he wins then as well, will it be as convincingly as this by-election result.

    4. Where to now for Parmjeet Parmar?

    Very interesting vote-result tonight not just for Micheal Wood but for Labour.

    Let us see what tommorow brings.