Can Maori Party and T.O.P be successful together

T.O.P Leader Geoff Simmons wants to work with the Maori Party according to this story;

https://www.maoritelevision.com/news/politics/top-wants-work-maori-party-2020-election?fbclid=IwAR1gUho50JXUDG07YiVdbfJQXEz6SYeMtZY_9Hu4-vIOGx49BP2KRRADHIg

Data below gives us a view on whether or not that is viable.

The data is the latest Electoral data, the 2017 Election.

­­­

2017

Maori Seat Party Votes for Labour VS. Maori Party/T.O.P

Seats	Labour	Maori Party	T.O.P
Tai Tokerau	14446	1615	577
Tamaki Makaurau	12220	2258	477
Hauraki Waikato	14279	2635	582
Waiariki	14144	4730	690
Ikaroa-Rawhiti	15233	3058	468
Tai Hauauru	13475	3448	658
Tai Tonga	13484	2030	944
	Total: 97281	Total: 19774	Total: 4396

Overall Party Vote of Maori Party and T.O.P:

30580 (Maori Party) + 63261 (T.O.P) = 93841

-

It is clear that just in their Maori Seat Vote, Labour still supersedes that combined overall result of Maori Party and T.O.P by 3440

-

The current (5%) threshold is 129594.8

-

A 4% threshold is 100795.84

-

A 3% threshold is 77756.88

-

At that 3% threshold, a combined Maori Party T.O.P Candidate could get in, but we can see that this outcome is highly unlikely.

Based on the 2017 results, a Maori Party/T.O.P Candidate getting in on the Party vote is not likely to be successful.

  

_________________________________________________________________________________

2017

Maori Seat

Candidate Votes for Labour VS. Maori Party/T.O.P

Seats	Labour	Maori Party	T.O.P
Tai Tokerau	12,673	0	0
Tamaki Makaurau	9396	5587	0
Hauraki Waikato	15306	6083	0
Waiariki	12362	10643	0
Ikaroa-Rawhiti	12274	8064	0
Tai Hauauru	9791	8752	0
Tai Tonga	10416	4915	0
	Total: 82218	Total:44044	Total: 0

It is here that we see that the Maori Party was not successful in the Candidate vote in the Maori seats and T.O.P had no results in the Maori seats because they did not stand in the Maori seats.

But if we used the T.O.P Party vote of 4396 as a gauge, this does not give confidence in the T.O.P Party’s Maori seat prospects.

THE HARD FACTS:

These are the hard electoral facts, the odds and results are not in T.O.P’s or the Maori Party’s favour when it comes to Maori seats.

Even looking at their combined overall party votes, on current thresholds,  they cant even get a List Seat.

National Party Party Votes in Tamaki Makaurau

Continuing from yesterday's analysis , and owing to National launching their Maori wing last night
as seen in these pictures

I thought it a good idea to show the data that says why it's a silly idea (their Party vote in Tamaki Makaurau is pitiful). Also, last time I checked, they are still voting against Maori seats, in line with their Anti Maori Seat policy.

See their stats below from the Electoral Commision.

National Party Party Vote in Tamaki Makaurau

 (or similar electorates) 1996 – 2017

1996

Te Tai Tokerau 1426

1999

Te Tai Tokerau 746

2002

(They stood a candidate,

this was the only time they stood)

Tamaki Makaurau  516

2005

Tamaki Makaurau 801

2008

Tamaki Makaurau 1504

2011

Tamaki Makaurau 1569

2014

Tamaki Makaurau 1575

2017

Tamaki Makaurau 1348

--

An overall Party Vote decrease is seen for this area from

1996 to 2002.

The vote increases from then up until the 2014 Election.

Then the vote decreases again in 2017.

National comes a distant 4^th.

While they are 142 votes behind the 3^rd place getters (Greens)

They are over 10,000 votes behind the winners (Labour).

Comparing Party Votes of Labour and the Maori Party

Compiled this for other Political geeks like me who have an interest in Maori Politics.

It is interesting to see.
It examines Party Vote Data for Labour and the Maori Party from 2005 - 2017 (The time of the existence of the Maori Party).

It looks specifically at the Maori seats.

Fundamentally we see that the 2017 saw the highest swing to Labour not just in the 21st Century but also arguably the highest swing in all MMP History.

See the data below.
-

Comparing the Party Votes of the Labour Party and Maori Party from

Maori Electorates from 2005 – 2017

All Results are from: www.electionresults.govt.nz

2005

Labour Party

10,639 + 10421 + 10951 + 9619+ 9788 + 11485     +  10530   =73433

Maori Party (Overall 48263)

5122+5184+5457 +5739  + 6151 +  3481  + 6104      = 37,238     

2008

Labour Party

9819 + 11328 + 10084 + 10,005 + 9200+ 9833    +  8903    = 69172

Maori Party (Overall 55980)

5172+5326 + 5801 + 6076 + 6204 +   4414  + 6890 = 39802   

2011

Labour Party

8250 +9054 +7739+7645+6855+6791+6591 = 52929

Maori Party       (Overall 31982)

2337+2736 +2694+3829+2208+2379+ 3898= 20,081

2014

Labour Party

9724+10489 +8423+8642+8034+7607+8595 = 61,514

Maori Party    (Overall 31849)

2504+2699 +2651+3611+2300+2319+4880 =20,964

2017

Labour Party

14279+15233 +12220+13475+14446+13484+14144 = 97,281

Maori Party    (Overall 30580)

2635+3058 +2258+3448+1615+2030+4730 = 19,774

Compare the 2017 results to the last time when Labour held all Maori seats in 2002.

There was no ‘Maori Party; so we can use the results for ‘Mana Maori Movement’.

2002

Labour Party

8875 + 8007 + 9052 + 8113 + 7646 + 8157 + 8322 = 58172

Mana Maori Movement (Overall 4980)

511 + 811 + 464 + 590 + 531 + 481 + 947 = 4335

Some may be interested in earlier MMP Elections (1999) when there were 6 seats instead of 7.

1999

Labour Party

8986 + 10,763 + 8755 + 9403 + 10,105 + 9670 = 57,682

Mana Maori Movement: (Overall 5190)

496+ 750 + 966 + 494 + 382 + 1469 = 4557

Today's Email to Local Leaders about Suicide Prevention

Sent to MPs, Auckland Councillors and Local Board Chairs;
-

MPs, Councillors, Local Board Chairs;

I write simply to ask you... what is your personal and professional commitment (in your capacity) to Active, Community Based, Grassroots Suicide Prevention in your area?

Do you believe we should do something?

Do you wish to meet? Do you wish to do more to prevent suicide in our community.

_______

Background

I write to you in my capacity as an Advocate for Suicide Prevention going back at least 8 years.

Whether my past commentary , or work done with Community organisations like CASPER or advocates like Tara Moala or Ps. Joseph Fa'afiu (Hope Walk). Even in building networks with amazing rangatahi like Zeek Raui.

---

My family and I are recently bereaved by Suicide. My cousin Carlos Howearth, died from suicide, 7 days ago.

It will sadden the MP for Mangere and Local Board Chair of Otahuhu-Mangere to hear that the suicide itself happened in their area.

Leaders in Manurewa and Papakura (Local Board Chairs, Councillors, and MPs) will be grieved to know that Youth in our area, faced difficult odds even getting the body released from a Funeral Director in central Auckland... so that we could  grieve properly

-

The Maori MPs who received this email, will cry knowing that the victim was a proud Ngati Kahungunu, Ngati Whatua and Ngapuhi.

-

Regards,

TeRata Rangi Boldy

02102874132

terata@hotmail.com

"Te Waru o Noema" A Catholic's Reflection

First off... Yes.

You read correctly.

I am no longer any other religion. I claim Jesus Christ as my Saviour and I follow my Saviour's direction in St. Matthew 16: 17 - 19.... I am seeking to be Catholic, which simply means I am seeking to follow Ephesians 4: 5. But more on that possibly for another blog entry.
-

I want to first of all praise people in my Manurewa community. People who I can truly call Enlightened.
They are Apotoro Simon Pikimaui, Apotoro Kereama Pene, Joyal Pene and Raniera Pene. They've all worked tirelessly for many months, with 1 mission.... to unite people under the 1 God. They truly seek to fulfill the call of Ephesians 4:13 in order to achieve what is hoped for in Ephesians 4:15.

I salute them.

-

You may know, that on their invitation, earlier this year, I attended Morehu Day. And it was at this day that I publicly declared, faith in Jesus and my return to Christianity.

To them I am grateful for such an incredible and unforgettable opportunity.
-

Now to the subject I am discussing.

'Te Waru O Noema' the 8th of November, is a day for members of the Ratana Church to remember, in their accounts, of the reported visitation of Te Kawau-born farmer, Tahupotiki Wiremu Ratana,  by the Holy Spirit in 1918.... just days before the end of the Great War.

Yes members of the Ratana Church believe that Tahupotiki Wiremu Ratana was visited by the Holy Spirit on the 8th of November 1918.

Those Ratana Members, credit this day with the arrival of the Holy Spirit to Maori.
-

Of course, this is actually just part of a long line of events stretching back as 1814 when Anglican Reverend Samuel Marsden preached a Christian Sermon on Christmas Day at Oihi... or even as some report back in 1769, when in Taipa-Mangonui (Doubtless Bay) it is said that the first Catholic Mass was celebrated by Fr. Paul-Antoine de Villefeix on board the ship, Saint Jean Baptiste (St. John the Baptist). As a side note Jean-Baptiste, is the first name of the First Catholic Bishop of New Zealand, who is otherwise known as Bishop Pompallier. 
-

It almost goes without saying that there were indeed other significant Maori Spiritual leaders like, Tawhiao, Te Ua Haumene, Te Kooti and many many others. 
-

Thus, I say as a Catholic, that T. W. Ratana was one of many christians both Maori and Non-Maori to preach about the saving power of Jesus.

I want to add, that his mission to carry the Bible and Tiriti... is actually a mission began since the origins of Christianity in this land, Aotearoa New Zealand.

He simply affirmed the centrality of The Holy Bible and Te Tiriti for Maori People.

We can not forget that Te Tiriti was written, translated and distributed by Anglicans.

Further, the Bible is a gift to all the world, including Maori from the Catholic Church.

Thus, any who acknowledge these 2 important writings, should also acknowledge the ones who gave them to us, namely the Anglican and Catholic Churches respectively.
-

I therefore use a day like today to acknowledge the integral part that Jesus Christ and his Church have played in the history of this Nation.

I ask all Christians in Aotearoa to remember Jesus today, on the 8th of November... because everything that today represents, whether you are Ratana, Catholic, Anglican OR Any Denomination or Church... all things originate in Christ as we are so reminded in Collosians 1: 15 - 17.

My own Political Risks.. and how they may finally be paying off

Tena Koutou

It know it has been a wee while since my last blog post. Alot has been happening in my life.

But I thought I'd share this.
-

Anyone that Googles my name... will find one of THE MOST Embarrassing videos of my Political Career. It is in hindsight one of the GREATEST Political risks I have EVER Taken.

I have spoken at length about all of that in the past.

A new angle though... that is my first greatest political risk I ever took and that it took place in 2014.
-

It generated a raft of news for 1 day at least... but for me personally I feel.. has left an indeliable negative mark on my career and maybe even to some extent the image, people have of me in public life.
-

Next though, among the 2 GREATEST Political Risks I have EVER Taken, was a video filmed on the 5th of November 2017, known as 'the Marae video'.

MASSIVE MASSIVE Contrasts in the 2... but both equally risky. That is undeniable.

People are political and hold political opinions, so viewed either isolated from each other OR in conjunction... they present again... a particular image.
-

Now if you DO view them together... my personal hope is that YOU see .. primarily my transition away from the Maori Party.
-

Whats LESS Obvious is the undertones of both videos... and how interestingly enough they actually relate to a whole OTHER Party... That is... the New Zealand Labour Party (Te Roopu Reipa)

See, the 2014 video is me asking (however loudly) for the Labour Leader to be inclusive and think more broadly about Maori representation... something I still believe in today.
-

The 2017 video presents (for Politicos) a huge contrast to the #HoakeTatou Labour Maori Campaign, and if you haven't worked it out speaks to it's huge power and the way it did in fact connect. If you don't get that from watching the first time... watch again and see Now.
-

It needs to be said though.... BOTH Videos serve as huge risks at the time they were created.

It bears mentioning.. that the 2014 video ACTUALLY got me in trouble with the Maori Party all those years ago.... and the risk ultimately came to a head when in 2015 I was forced to resign from the Maori Party.
...

The 2017 video was an attempt at trying to right the wrong of the 2014 video.. but also an attempt at putting across a more mature political view.... BUT Again.. you won't be suprised to know that the Maori Party didn't like the 2017 Marae video at all..
-

Let me now tell you how this all holds relevance in November 2018...

WELL.. The 2017 Video was a way of... telling LABOUR That I am well and truly DONE with the Maori Party and that I am very very firmly in the Labour Camp... I support Labour.
-

In the last 12 months since that 2017 Marae video.... the Tamaki Makaurau Labour Party has heartily embraced me, as has the Maori part (Te Kaunihera Maori) of the Labour Party.
I've cheered on my MP Peeni in his achievements and I've supported 2 Labour Candidates of Maori descent (Brooke Loader and Shanan Halbert)

You'll remember these beautiful photos of me as personal translator for former Labour Leader Hon. Andrew Little at a local Event.

-
Most rewarding of all... while I can't release the exact details.... I can inform all that thus far one of the greatest payoffs of the political risk taken exactly a year ago on the 5th of November...

Was met today... in that I was privileged to push a new policy for New Zealand Labour (nothing major, but it is based on fairness and democracy). The Party today accepted my policy which I hope will be released in due course.
-

As I write I am overwhelmed with satisfaction and forgivably very proud of myself but most of all as I write this... I am proud to be

My tweet about Bishop Brian Tamaki.

I want to write briefly in relation to this tweet

https://twitter.com/terata6/status/988219502256013312

The tweet was prompted by these stories;

One from Stuff:
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/103311135/destiny-churchs-bishop-brian-tamaki-severely-burnt-in-rubbish-fire

Another from Newshub
http://www.newshub.co.nz/home/new-zealand/2018/04/destiny-church-s-brian-tamaki-hospitalised-after-rubbish-fire.html
-

I affirm the rights of all New Zealanders to believe what they wish.
This Human Right, is enshrined in our Bill of Rights and Te Tiriti o Waitangi, in Article 4 of Te Tiriti o Waitangi.

I uphold and will always defend the right of anyone in New Zealand, to believe what they wish.

Recently in Easter Weekend, during the Easter Production

https://www.facebook.com/events/1759822617417623/ 

Destiny Church made some alarming claims.

A Scene in that play, plays a montage of Maori Prophets like Ratana, Rua Kenana and Tawhiao.

The Play, portrays a following Scene where a young Brian Tamaki says 'They are dead and I am here now'(paraphrased).

In the context and timing of the Production I mention above, and the claim made therein, I further wish to assert that, such a claim by itself is offensive to the pononga (followers) of those Rangatira, who are considered Prophets.

They are Maori Prophets.
-

It is detestable to claim oneself as a sole Prophetic authority for all Maori people.

It is my belief that Brian Tamaki's burn injuries are divine retribution.

END

Further comments:

I uphold the rights of Brian Tamaki and his followers to believe as they wish. Their religious freedom is as dear to me, as are my own rights and the rights of all other New Zealanders.

The offering of my opinion, is just that, the offering of an opinion. This opinion offered is in relation to this story.

I do not hold that, Destiny and it's subsidiary organisations like it's School, ECE, Gym, Social services etc are bad. These organisations and programs are incredible and make very positive contributions to our community and our wider society.

It is my assertion that a twisted ideology has bought dire, near fatal consequences for the one who espoused it.

Thank you.