Yes this is a rare post. I have not done one in a while. YES, It is Political.
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And I feel obliged to do so here too.
I am a Te Tai Tokerau voter in 2020.
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I want to use data to reassure voters in Te Tai Tokerau but also ACROSS New Zealand.
I believe that like me, many are worried about NZPP Leader, Billy Te Kahika being elected. Everyone has their own reasons. Mine are thus; His views are NOT Just extreme but dangerous, not just the peddling of conspiracies but widely promoting civil unrest.
I can NOT in good faith ever lend my support to something like that. Some argue that even mentioning it fuels the fire and I myself am aware of that. This very post may even be attacked by him and his followers. I accept that.
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I just need to say before I go on that this post is NOT aimed at them or him. They can say what they wish.
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MY POST HERE is for the thousands of people who fear Billy Te Kahika being elected.
And we are right to fear this. I believe that he is more extreme that Pauline Hanson and may even be more extreme than Donald Trump. He is the most extreme candidate I have ever known of in New Zealand. He is not a danger to the quote unquote 'establishment'. HE IS A DANGER to our Peace, to our Safety and to our very liberty. All of us ought to be concerned at his rise in Social media popularity. And before I go on.... there is merit is being annoyed at some things.. undoubtedly. BUT Billy's version and style of fight... seek to promote unrest and discord in the very fabric of what it means to be peace loving New Zealanders.
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Enough rhetoric... here are my assertions based on facts.
First off;
BILLY TE KAHIKA IS HIGHLY UNLIKELY TO BE ELECTED TO PARLIAMENT IN THE 2020 GENERAL ELECTION.
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The New Zealand Public Party is NOT Registered. Neither are they listed as a component Party of Advance New Zealand. As far as I know then, New Zealand Public Party can't be elected to Parliament based on the Party Vote as they can not contest it.
Also in terms of Advance New Zealand, the facts are that votes for them in terms of Electoral Law are only for them, NOT the New Zealand Public Party.
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I believe this is so because the 'merger' has not been registered with the Electoral Commission either. And so again, no one can Party vote New Zealand Public Party. And Party votes from Advance New Zealand stay with Advance New Zealand.
Further to this, even if the 2 do publicize a combined list, it won't elect Kahika as he is not Advance New Zealand but New Zealand Public Party. I may not be accurate but I am quite sure I am.
This means too then that in the highly unlikely event of Jami-Lee Ross winning Botany in 2020, it will not bring in Billy Te Kahika in accordance with the well founded but important technicality of Electoral Law. As far as I understand, even in that unlikely event, Billy not being a member of Advance New Zealand or any (non existent) component Parties thereof, can not use the 'tailing' rule to be Elected.
Again, this is just assumption but it is well founded. The precedent I base this on, is the 2014 case of InternetMANA. They actually did register together for their merger and they did thus contest a 'combined' Party vote. But of course they COULD NOT do so (or place any Electoral hopes therein at the time) without taking that initial step of registering together.
In this 2020 case of Advance New Zealand and New Zealand Public Party the well-publicized 'merger' is neither registered nor binding on the Electoral Commission as the legal work in terms of Party registration has not taken place. Sidenote, Advance New Zealand has also not yet published any Party Constitution. This though would ultimately be of no consequence, because even if their Constitution makes allowance for NZPP, New Zealand Law does NOT.
So, in summary, Billy Te Kahika can't use the coat tailing rule EVEN IF the unlikely happens and Jami-Lee Ross is elected in the Botany Seat in 2020.
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THE OTHER Way that Billy Te Kahika seeks to be elected is as the MP for Te Tai Tokerau.
Unequivocally I can say in all the History of MMP, Te Tai Tokerau Voters have NEVER Elected MPs who did not have their own Party Registered.
In 1996, Tau Henare's Party was registered. From 1999 to 2002, Dover Samuel's Party was a registered Party. From 2005 to 2011, Hone Harawira's Parties were registered. In 2014 and 2017, Kelvin Davis's Party was a registered Party.
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Further, a note on that Incumbent vote for Kelvin Davis, his 2014 Majority was 743. In 2017, Kelvin Davis's majority increased to 4807.
I see it is as highly unlikely that Kelvin Davis loses in Te Tai Tokerau. Only time will tell.
Of course though, I see it as even MORE unlikely that he'd lose the Te Tai Tokerau Seat to Billy Te Kahika.
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So again... Billy Te Kahika can't even contest and thus not be elected on the Party Vote (he may change it later, but we'll pray that they do not).
And of course standing in Te Tai Tokerau, he is unlikely to get second place, let alone first.
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Nothing is impossible.
But the data for me is clear.
BILLY TE KAHIKA, LEADER OF NZPP IS NOT LIKELY TO BE ELECTED AS A MEMBER OF PARLIAMENT IN THE 2020 GENERAL ELECTION.
That does NOT mean that we don't take him any less seriously... I am saying we MUST TAKE HIM SERIOUSLY.... And the way to do so is to vote accordingly.
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This blog post is Authorized by me.
