My personal, informed opinion on how the Maori seats might go in 2017.
In some cases, there is a clear idea whereas with others it is anyone's guess.
Te Tai Tokerau
In my view, Kelvin voters will vote for Kelvin because they are pleased with his work and don't want Hone. Hone voters will vote for Hone because they are pleased with his previous record of service and believe he may be that 'effective independent voice'.
I have no clear prediction for Te Tai Tokerau and it could honestly go either way.
Tamaki Makaurau
Again, I honestly feel it may go either way, Peeni has a great record of service over the last 3 years and is respected throughout the rohe. But The Maori Party also have a great history in this seat and their candidate has a high profile. The Maori Party's Shane Taurima has as good a chance as incumbent Peeni Henare to win.
Hauraki-Waikato
It's a no brainer, in all the history of the seat, Labour's Nanaia Mahuta has always won. I predict she will win again.
Waiariki
A consistent and strong showing for Incumbent Te Ururoa Flavell for over 10 years. I predict him winning again.
Te Tai Hauauru
Like 2 other seats, it is anyone's guess. Incumbent Adrian Rurawhe had a good majority last Election. Maori Party candidate is popular in parts of the Electorate. Not sure if it is a level playing field. Polls show support for the Maori Party's Howie Tamati, but Adrian's connection to key parts of the Electorate make him have a strong chance. I won't call this one here. Both Howie and Adrian have a good chance.
Ikaroa-Rawhiti
Labour's Meka Whaitiri won the by-election that got her in to Parliament and the General Election Result last time. I predict her winning comfortably again.
Te Tai Tonga
Labour's Rino Tirikatene has held the seat since 2011 and has not been unseated. He does have a challenge in Green's Metiria Turei. But I do not think that Rino will lose.
Important Note:
* I obviously believe in the Maori seats but don't talk about that here. See my thoughts on this youtube video
* I have blogged on Political Issues for 4 years
* I have campaigned for several parties, including Maori Party, Greens and Labour
* I have already voted and so hope things go a particular way, but try not to bias my writing here.
* I believe it is clear that Labour will win Party vote, so won't comment on that here, that's not bias, that's going on previous results.
* I won't comment on the Greens, alot insomusch, they have consistent voters in the Maori seats, but have not yet won candidacy which is the focus of this blog.
* The 2 biggest upsets which affected the seats from then onwards, will be mentioned here rather than throughout the blog.
1. was the 2004 Seabed and Foreshore debacle
2. 2010 split of the MANA Movement from the Maori Party.
