Northland By-Election 2015

NB I am not on the General roll, I haven't ever voted for National, I am not a National Party member or anything like that.
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Have a wee look at this Wikipedia entry on the Electorate of Northland

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northland_(New_Zealand_electorate)

Now see these official results from last year
http://www.electionresults.govt.nz/electionresults_2014/electorate-35.html

There was a clear winner in Party vote AND Electorate vote
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According to that SAME Wikipedia entry, the last time the National Party candidate faced a really serious contender in 2005, the National candidate STILL got a clear 16,000 votes and had a clear win.
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I KNOW that Winston Peters is an incredible contender for the seat of Northland, he is formidable, opinionated and a very polarising personality.

But last year his Party got less than 5000 votes in Northland, where as National got triple that.

AND in my opinion, Northland voters will think 'If Winston, good as he is, really cared for Northland why has he never stood in the general roll Northland seat before now????".... AND "Can we really let him upset the precarious balance of the John Key-led Government????"
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The seat of Northland IS a SAFE National seat.
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The Labour candidate is an amazing women, the Act Candidate is not well known and neither in the MANA Candidate.
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National and their big farmer man have this sown up.. Yes they had the the big guns out today with the Prime Minister, but that was more a show of a commitment to the Electorate more than anything else.

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This is just my small opinion, we'll wait and see how this really turns out.